The 2026 Senate midterm elections should be Republicans’ to lose with a map that strongly favors the GOP. With a three seat Senate majority and Vice President JD Vance as the tie breaker, Democrats need to pick up four seats to capture the majority. It’s a tall order for Democrats, who need to defend an open seat in Michigan and a toss-up in Georgia while toppling at least three Republicans in states President Donald Trump carried in 2024.
Georgia (D)
In Georgia, incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff is the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent, and Republicans will spend millions supporting his challenger. Georgia Republicans’ efforts to unseat him were made more difficult when Governor Brian Kemp opted out of the race, sensing strong Democratic headwinds in a swing state that has trended left. Since Kemp passed on a run, Representatives Buddy Carter and Mike Collins and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley have officially launched campaigns. Kemp privately told both Representatives Carter and Collins that he would not endorse either of them and has since endorsed Dooley, setting up a competitive, potentially bruising Republican primary.
Iowa (R)
In Iowa, incumbent Senator Joni Ernst announced that she would not be running for reelection after weeks of speculation regarding her political future. Republican Representative Ashley Hinson jumped into the race just hours later, and quickly secured endorsements from Senator Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC). On the Democratic side, several state legislators had already launched runs before Ernst announced her retirement, setting the stage for a competitive Democratic primary.
Maine (R)
In Maine, multiple Democratic candidates have opted to run for governor rather than challenge five-term incumbent Senator Susan Collins. The Democrats’ best remaining potential candidate is Governor Janet Mills. Mills is 77 years old, complicating her decision and potential campaign in light of calls from the Democratic base for generational change. Jordan Wood, who served as Chief of Staff to former California Representative Katie Porter and Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and veteran, have launched their bids for the Democratic nomination.
Michigan (Open-D)
Michigan will be a competitive battleground in 2026, and it is already playing host to a hotly contested Democratic primary. Representative Haley Stevens appears to be leading the pack, with previous gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed and State Senator Mallory McMorrow following closely behind. The Republican primary has been dominated by former Representative Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost a 2024 Senate race to now-Senator Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 20,000 votes.
Minnesota (D)
In Minnesota, Senator Tina Smith’s retirement announcement has led to a competitive Democratic primary. The two leading candidates are Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flannagan and Representative Angie Craig. There has been little public polling in the primary, but it appears to be competitive. Both Senators Smith and Klobuchar have declined to endorse a candidate in the primary. Royce White is the only notable Republican in the field; he ran an unsuccessful campaign to unseat Klobuchar last year.
Nebraska (R)
Senator Pete Ricketts appeared to have a simple path towards reelection in ruby-red Nebraska. That was somewhat upended when independent Dan Osborn announced that he would join the race. In 2024, Osborn ran a closer-than-expected race against Senator Deb Fischer that concerned the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Osborn is not a Democrat, and he has promised not to caucus with either party should he win the election. But both of Osborn’s runs have been supported, but not endorsed, by the DSCC and vigorously opposed by the NRSC.
North Carolina (Open-R)
North Carolina’s Senate race has been a toss-up for months, but Senator Thom Tillis’s shock retirement during the final consideration of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act gives Democrats an opening. Democrats have landed their top recruit of the 2026 cycle: former Governor Roy Cooper. Cooper announced his run in July after months of speculation about his political future. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is running on the Republican side, with President Trump’s support, after the President’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, passed on the race.
Ohio (R)
In Ohio, Democrats have landed their top recruit, former Senator Sherrod Brown. He was first elected to the Senate in 2006, but his tenure came to an end last year when he lost to now-Senator Bernie Moreno by more than 200,000 votes. He will be facing off against Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine to replace JD Vance after he assumed the vice presidency. Neither candidate will face a significant challenge in the primary, setting up an expensive general election race in a state that has trended right in recent years.
Texas (R)
In Texas, the Republican primary has garnered national attention, while the Democratic primary has just begun. Polls have shown incumbent Senator John Cornyn closing the gap to Attorney General Ken Paxton in recent weeks, after Senate leadership launched a multi-million dollar effort to protect Cornyn. Paxton was impeached by the Texas House after reports of an extramarital affair and bribery in 2023, but the Senate voted against convicting and removing him. Former Democratic Representative Colin Allred and State Representative James Talarico have launched campaigns in the Democratic Primary. Allred lost to Republican incumbent Senator Ted Cruz in last year’s election.
