Primary elections for this year have begun, setting the stage for the final midterm election cycle during the Trump era. Republicans remain the favorites to maintain control of the Senate. Thanks to strong candidate recruiting and increasing voter concerns about the Administration’s policies, however, Democrats have opened a slim path to retaking the majority.
It’s a tall order for Democrats, who need to defend open seats in Michigan and Minnesota and a highly competitive race in Georgia while toppling at least four incumbent Republicans. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has said that Democrats’ best chance to retake the Senate requires their candidates flip Republican seats in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska while defending all their own open seats and incumbents.
North Carolina (Open-R) – Primary Complete (March 3)
In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper cleared the Democratic field after announcing his candidacy last year and sailed to a primary election victory. Similarly, Trump-endorsed former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley easily secured his party’s nomination for this November’s general election. Democrats are confident that Cooper is their best candidate to flip this seat, and Republicans believe Whatley has what it takes to defeat the state’s popular former governor.
Texas (R) – Democratic Primary Complete (March 3); Republican Runoff (May 26)
In Texas, the complicated and costly Republican primary will continue for three additional months after no candidate secured more than 50% of the vote on March 3. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton will face off in May’s runoff after they secured 42% and 41% of the primary vote, respectively. President Trump is currently withholding a primary endorsement in an attempt to pressure Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) to push the SAVE America Act through the upper chamber. Thune and other national Republican leaders have repeatedly asked Trump to endorse Cornyn and prevent an expensive, divisive runoff. Recent reporting indicates that Trump is unlikely to endorse Cornyn, but the President’s thinking could change at any moment. State Representative James Talarico secured victory with 52% of the vote in the Democratic primary, beating firebrand Representative Jasmine Crockett (TX-30).
Ohio (R) – Primary (May 5)
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Freshman Senator Jon Husted are on a collision course for this fall’s general election, with neither candidate facing a significant primary opponent. Brown lost to Senator Bernie Moreno by just over 200,000 votes in 2024. Husted has won a statewide election in Ohio previously, having served as the state’s lieutenant governor before being appointed to replace JD Vance in the Senate after he assumed the vice presidency. The state has trended rightward in recent years, but Democrats believe they have an opportunity to break this trend thanks to Brown’s statewide prominence.
Georgia (D) – Primary (May 19)
First-term Senator Jon Ossoff is the Senate Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent, but a bruising Republican primary and impressive fundraising gives his campaign momentum headed into the general election. Republicans hope to unseat Ossoff and reassert their party’s dominance in Georgia’s statewide elections, but internal divisions have complicated this effort. Representatives Buddy Carter (GA-1) and Mike Collins (GA-10) and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley are engaged in a competitive primary. Dooley has been endorsed by Governor Brian Kemp. President Trump has said privately that he will not endorse a candidate in the primary, but he has reneged on similar pledges this year.
Iowa (R) – Primary (June 2)
Shortly after incumbent Senator Joni Ernst announced that she would not run for reelection, Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-2) jumped into the race and cleared the field in the Republican primary. State Representative and four-time Paralympian Josh Turek and former Iowa Senate Minority Leader Zach Wahls are facing off in a competitive Democratic primary. No front runner has emerged yet for Democrats.
Maine (R) – Primary (June 9)
Incumbent Senator Susan Collins, who chairs the powerful Appropriations Committee, officially launched her reelection campaign on February 10. Collins voted against many of the Trump administration’s most controversial priorities, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, complicating Democrats’ efforts to tie her to the President. Democrats believe they have their best chance yet to unseat the five-term senator with her current approval rating at 41%, which is nearly the same as when she last faced voters in 2020. Governor Janet Mills is facing off against oyster farmer and veteran Graham Platner in the Democratic primary. Public polling has been inconsistent on the Democratic side. Whichever candidate emerges will enter a competitive, expensive general election campaign against Collins, who has drawn criticism from President Trump.
Michigan (Open-D) – Primary (August 4)
Michigan is playing host to one of the most competitive Democratic primaries. Representative Haley Stevens (MI-11) and State Senator Mallory McMorrow are leading the pack, with previous gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed following close behind. The Republican primary has been dominated by former Representative Mike Rogers (MI-8), who narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race to now-Senator Elissa Slotkin. Maintaining control of this seat is essential if Democrats hope to win the Senate.
Minnesota (D) – Primary (August 11)
Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Representative Angie Craig (MN-2) are facing off in the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Senator Tina Smith. Craig became the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee last year. Flanagan has secured key endorsements in the race, including Smith. Polling has shown Flanagan in the lead. Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) has declined to endorse a candidate in the primary and recently launched a gubernatorial campaign in the state, which would allow her to appoint her own replacement in the Senate. Former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya has jumped into the Republican primary with backing from the NRSC, all but ensuring she will secure her party’s nomination.
Alaska (R) – Primary (August 18)
Alaska’s incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan had hoped to avoid a competitive general election campaign. These hopes were dashed when former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola entered the race after flirting with a gubernatorial run. Peltola represented Alaska in the House for two terms. Her entrance gives Democrats a chance at flipping this seat, expanding their narrow path to retake the Senate majority.
New Hampshire (D) – Primary (September 8)
In New Hampshire, after Senator Jeane Shaheen announced that she would not be seeking reelection, Representative Chris Pappas (NH-1) has solidified control in the Democratic primary. The four-term Congressman and chicken tender magnate has Senate Democrats confident that they will maintain control of this seat, having established an impressive electoral record in his battleground congressional district. In the Republican primary, former Senator John Sununu launched his campaign at the NRSC’s urging last October. Shaheen ousted Sununu from the Senate after just one term in 2008. Sununu’s father and brother were both two-term governors of the Granite State. The general election is expected to be competitive given both candidates’ statewide prominence.
View our early look at the 2026 Senate Midterms here.
