As the midterm elections near, three themes have begun to define the battle for control of the House of Representatives: redistricting, reruns, and retirements.
- Redistricting. Partisan gerrymandering across multiple states, kicked off by Texas, has increased Republicans’ chances to retain their majority. This trend was buoyed by a recent Supreme Court decision on voting rights that opened the door for further redraws across the South that could net Republicans more than a dozen seats. A Virginia Supreme Court decision striking down a map benefitting Democrats provides further help to Republicans.
- Reruns. More than a dozen former House members have launched comeback bids this year, sensing a friendly political environment or district.
- Retirements. At least 58 members of the House are not running for reelection this fall, more than half of which are retiring from public office; the remainder are running in state-wide elections. As President Trump’s approval ratings continue to decline due to the Iran War, tariffs, inflation, and affordability, more members may head for the exits in the coming months. Ultimately, this could be a record-breaking year for retirements.
Until the Supreme Court decision on voting rights, Democrats were at least marginally favored to take control of the House, supported by the longstanding trend of the president’s party losing seats in midterm elections. But Republicans have major cash and redistricting advantages, led by fundraiser-in-chief Donald Trump. One Trump-aligned Super PAC, MAGA Inc, alone boasts a $300 million war chest. While the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) holds a relatively narrow $9 million cash on hand lead over its Democratic counterpart, the Republican National Committee’s cash on hand total of $38 million is more than twice that of the Democratic National Committee’s $13.8 million as of the end of Q1 2026.
If Democrats win the House, Republicans and the Trump Administration are growing increasingly concerned about the investigative powers that come with a Democratic majority. House Democrats are prepared to unleash a flurry of subpoenas on a wide range of topics such as the Epstein files and the Iran War.
In an election where all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up and just a few seats could swing control of the House, we break out some of the more interesting races across the country where redistricting, reruns, and retirements will ultimately decide the balance of power.
Redistricting
CA-06: Representative Kevin Kiley (I)
California’s retaliatory redistricting aims to send five Republican incumbents into an early retirement. One of them, Representative Kiley, is leaving behind the 3rd district he currently represents, instead opting to run in the redrawn 6th district. This district voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 8% in 2024. Given the favorable Democratic tilt, Kiley announced that he would be dropping the Republican party label. Though now officially Independent, he remains a de-facto member of the Republican Party in Congress and caucuses with the party. His longshot effort to stay in Congress makes him the first Independent in the House since Former Representative Justin Amash (I-MI) left the Republican party in 2019.
CA-40: Representatives Young Kim (R) and Ken Calvert (R)
Incumbent Representatives Kim and Calvert were merged together into the 40th district in the redrawn map, with each currently representing about half of the new district. This district was packed with Republican voters, moving 10% to the right. Both members currently represent more moderate districts. Thanks to California’s jungle primary system, and the district’s Republican tilt, both incumbents could advance to the general election. This would extend a harsh, member-on-member campaign in a safe Republican seat and divert Republican campaign dollars from other winnable races.
OH-09: Representative Marcy Kaptur (D)
Ohio redrew its congressional maps prior to President Trump’s redistricting push due to the state’s wonky apportionment process. The newly approved map shifted Representative Kaptur’s district to the right. In 2024, Kaptur won reelection in a district that voted for President Trump by 6.5%, the redrawn district voted for the president by 10.5%. No House Democrat won in a double-digit Trump district in 2024. Kaptur will face a rematch with former State Representative Derek Merrin this fall after Merrin came out on top of a crowded primary. Kaptur beat Merrin by less than 2,500 votes in 2024. Thanks to redistricting, Republicans feel this may be their best opportunity to unseat Kaptur, who has held the seat for more than 40 years.
LA-02: Representatives Troy Carter (D) and Cleo Fields (D)
In 2022, a group of Black Louisiana voters challenged the state’s proposed congressional map that included only one majority Black district. A federal court found that this map likely violated the Voting Rights Act and ordered the state to add an additional majority Black district. In April, the Supreme Court found the new map to be an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, seriously weakening the Voting Rights Act. Soon thereafter, Louisiana’s Republican Governor announced he was suspending ongoing primary election voting so that the legislature could pass new maps to dismantle one of the majority Black districts. Louisiana Republicans are poised to approve a map with just one Black majority district, spanning from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. This new district includes more of Carter’s current district, who also benefits from greater seniority. The state’s two Democrats in Congress are unlikely to run against each other.
Reruns
TX-33: Former Representative Colin Allred (D)
Former Representative and Senate candidate Colin Allred has launched a comeback bid for his old Dallas-area House seat after losing to Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2024 and briefly entering Texas’s Senate Democratic primary this year. He is running against his successor in the House, freshman Representative Julie Johnson. The initial primary was held in early March, with neither candidate receiving more than 50% of the vote. The race is headed to a May runoff. Allred is the favorite in both the primary and general election after topping Representative Johnson in the initial primary by 11% in the deep blue district. Incredibly low turnout with election day falling the day after Memorial Day and a revamped early voting schedule makes prognostication difficult.
VA-02: Former Representative Elaine Luria (D)
Former Representative Luria is seeking a comeback to the House against Representative Jennifer Kiggans (R-VA) in a rematch of the 2022 race where Kiggans flipped the seat. Luria was elected to the House in Democrats’ 2018 wave election, and was part of the “Badass Caucus,” a group of moderate Democratic women elected that cycle with military experience, including now-Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Governors Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Mikie Sherill (D-NJ). A recent Virginia Supreme Court decision struck down a Democratic gerrymander that would’ve shifted the district 6% to the left, complicating Luria’s comeback bid. Nonetheless, with favorable political tailwinds and Kiggans’s controversial remarks during a radio interview, Democrats believe they have a tangible opportunity to flip this seat.
FL-19: Former Representatives Madison Cawthorn (R) and Chris Collins (R)
The solidly red House seat being vacated by Trump-backed gubernatorial candidate Representative Byron Donalds (R-FL) is playing host to a crowded primary headlined by two controversial former members of Congress. Former Representative Cawthorn’s single term in the House was scandal-ridden and ended with a crushing primary defeat in 2022. Former Representative Collins resigned from Congress in 2019 after pleading guilty to insider trading charges. He was later pardoned by President Trump. Both Former Representatives have left behind their states to seek a political comeback in the Sunshine State. Whichever candidate advances from the Republican primary is likely to win the general election.
Retirements
NE-02: Representative Don Bacon (R)
Representative Bacon’s Omaha-based district has been a perennial target for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) since the former Air Force Brigadier General flipped the seat a decade ago. Kamala Harris won the district by 4% in 2024, leaving Democrats confident about their chances in a more favorable political environment. In announcing his retirement, Bacon cited an increasingly polarized Washington as a primary reason for his departure. With an ever-narrowing battleground map, this district could prove key to Democrats’ efforts to gain a majority in the House. Denise Powell, a political activist, topped State Senator John Cavanaugh by two percent in the Democratic Primary, she will Republican Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding in the general election.
ME-02: Representative Jared Golden (D)
Representative Golden came to Washington as part of the 2018 wave election, winning a seat that was carried by President Trump all three times he ran. Golden has consistently bucked his party’s leadership while holding on to his Republican-leaning seat, drawing criticism from the progressive wing of his party. He cited Washington’s divided political environment and increasing political violence, including a bomb threat against his family’s home, in his retirement announcement. The NRCC is confident they will flip Golden’s seat without the incumbent on the ballot.
AZ-01 – Representative David Schweikert (R)
Representative Schweikert’s decision to enter the Grand Canyon State’s gubernatorial election strengthened Democrats’ odds to flip the competitive seat. President Trump narrowly carried the district in 2024. Democrats are hopeful that local newscaster Marlene Galán-Woods will be able to flip the seat after Schweikert won by less than 4% in 2024. Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely has cleared the field in the Republican primary with the NRCC’s backing. This battleground district is expected to be competitive, especially as President Trump’s support slips in battleground districts with key constituencies across the country.
Interested in what’s happening in Senate races this year? Visit our companion Senate article.
